First, total expenditures under the Medicare program — by the government and by beneficiaries — can be expressed as a percentage of the total value in dollars of the goods and services produced (GDP) in any one year. Second, there is total medical spending, expressed as a percentage of the GDP. Total medical care spending has increased steadily as a proportion of the GDP since the end of World War II. Medicare’s spending has increased during the last 40 years at a rate somewhat less than that of private medical spending, but as the baby boomer generation comes into Medicare, its proportion of the GDP will rise until the aging population declines. The Congressional Budget Office projects that, in the long run, Medicare spending will decrease as a share of total American spending on medical care.
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